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ShinyMetal
Promise ledger

Did they do what they said?

Each claim a robot company made in public, with the date, the source and what happened next. Kept means on time. Slipped means late or re-dated. Broken means the date passed with nothing delivered.

Logged
25
Kept
5
Slipped
6
Broken
3
Open
11
Kept rate
36%
  1. Tesla1 kept · 1 slipped · 1 broken · 3 open
  2. 23 Jul 2024said Elon Muskdue 31 Dec 2026

    Low-volume Optimus production for Tesla's own use in 2025, then, hopefully, high-volume production for other companies in 2026

    Open

    As of late September 2026 Optimus units are used inside Tesla for testing, training and data collection; no sales to outside companies have been reported, and Musk now targets public sales by end of 2027. Source

  3. 29 Jan 2025said Elon Muskdue 31 Dec 2025

    Tesla would build several thousand Optimus robots in 2025 (internal plan: about 10,000), and they would be doing useful work by year end

    Broken

    On the Q4 2025 call (2026-01-28) Musk said Optimus was 'still in the R&D phase' and 'not in usage in our factories in a material way.' No evidence that several thousand units were built or working in 2025. Source

  4. 22 Jan 2026said Elon Muskdue 31 Dec 2027

    Tesla will be selling Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027

    Open

    Said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Musk said sales would wait until reliability, safety and range of functions were 'very high.' No public price or order page yet. Source

  5. 28 Jan 2026said Tesla (Q4 2025 shareholder update)due 31 Mar 2026

    Tesla would unveil Optimus Gen 3, its first design meant for mass production, in Q1 2026

    Slipped

    Q1 ended with no reveal; Musk said Optimus 3 needed 'finishing touches.' On 2026-04-22 he moved it to 'probably middle of this year.' As of 2026-09-25 the reveal still had not happened. Source

  6. 28 Jan 2026said Tesla (Q4 2025 shareholder update)due 31 Dec 2026

    Start of production on the first Optimus production line before the end of 2026, heading to an eventual 1 million robots a year

    Open

    Reports in September 2026 describe output rising to several hundred units a week on the converted Fremont line, but Gen 3 has not been shown publicly and the 1 million a year capacity is far off. Source

  7. 22 Apr 2026said Elon Muskdue 31 Aug 2026

    Optimus production would start on the former Model S/X line at Fremont in late July or August 2026, slowly at first

    Kept

    Electrek (2026-09-25) reports Optimus output on the converted Model S/X line went from a few dozen a week in Q2 to several hundred a week in August. Most units stay inside Tesla for testing and data collection, and it is not clear which hardware generation is being built. Source

  1. 1X1 slipped · 2 open
  2. 21 Mar 2025said Bernt Børnichdue 31 Dec 2025

    NEO Gamma would go into 'a few hundred to a few thousand' homes for early-adopter testing by the end of 2025

    Slipped

    1X instead opened $20,000 NEO preorders in October 2025, with first home deliveries set for 2026. No customer delivery had been verified by mid-2026. Source

  3. 28 Oct 2025said 1Xdue 31 Dec 2026

    First NEO orders ship to US consumer homes in 2026 ($20,000 Early Access with priority 2026 delivery, or $499/month subscription)

    Open

    1X opened its Hayward factory on 2026-04-30 and says early units are going to internal testing first. We found no verified customer delivery as of late September 2026. 1X has also said some buyers will get their NEO in 2026 and some later. Source

  4. 19 Sep 2026said Bernt Børnichdue 31 Dec 2027

    1X aims to ship 50,000 robots in 2027, with its Hayward and San Carlos factories heading to about 110,000 units a year of capacity

    Open

    Target set before any verified customer delivery. The April 2026 factory announcement gave capacity as 10,000 NEOs a year, with plans for 100,000+ by the end of 2027. Source

  1. Agility Robotics1 kept · 1 slipped · 1 open
  2. 18 Sep 2023said Agility Roboticsdue 31 Dec 2024

    Customers in the Agility Partner Program would get their first Digit robots in 2024

    Kept

    Digit went into commercial work at a GXO facility on 2024-06-05, and GXO signed a multi-year robots-as-a-service agreement on 2024-06-27. Source

  3. 18 Sep 2023said Agility Roboticsdue 31 Dec 2025

    Digit would be generally available on the open market in 2025

    Slipped

    Digit 4 stayed with a small set of named customers (GXO, Schaeffler, Amazon, Toyota Canada). On 2026-09-15 Agility unveiled Digit 5, with early access expected in the first half of 2027 and general availability by the end of 2027. Source

  4. 15 Sep 2026said Agility Roboticsdue 31 Dec 2027

    Digit 5, built to work safely near people without barriers, gets early access in the first half of 2027 and general availability by the end of 2027

    Open

    Agility says it had more than $300 million in multi-year Digit 5 orders as of May 2026, subject to contract milestones. Source

  1. Figure1 kept · 1 slipped · 1 open
  2. 18 Jan 2024said Figure

    Under a commercial agreement, Figure robots would be deployed in stages into live production at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant

    Kept

    Figure said on 2025-11-19 that Figure 02 units ran 10-hour weekday shifts on an active BMW line for about six months, with 1,250+ hours of runtime and a role in building 30,000+ X3s. Figure 02 was then retired in favor of Figure 03. These numbers come from Figure. Source

  3. 27 Feb 2025said Brett Adcockdue 31 Dec 2025

    Figure would start 'alpha testing' its humanoid (then Figure 02) in homes later in 2025, two years earlier than planned

    Slipped

    We found no public record of Figure robots being tested in outside homes in 2025. Figure's first published multi-home results came on 2026-09-17, when Helix 2.5 was tested in 30 rented Bay Area homes. Figure evaluated those tests itself. Source

  4. 2 Jan 2026said Brett Adcockdue 31 Dec 2026

    In 2026, humanoid robots will do unsupervised, multi-day tasks in homes they have never seen before

    Open

    On 2026-09-17 Figure reported that Helix 2.5 finished 56% of 420 household tasks in 30 unfamiliar rented homes. That was a single-task evaluation with a safety overseer, not a multi-day unsupervised run, and nobody outside Figure has replicated it. Source

  1. Boston Dynamics1 kept · 1 open
  2. 5 Jan 2026said Boston Dynamicsdue 31 Dec 2026

    Production Atlas manufacturing starts immediately; 2026 units are fully committed, with fleets shipping to Hyundai's RMAC and Google DeepMind in the coming months

    Kept

    Pilot operations at RMAC outside Savannah began in June 2026 and have since moved to full operations. By September 2026 Atlas units there were learning to sequence parts. Those units are training, not doing production work. We did not find public confirmation of the DeepMind shipment. Source

  3. 5 Jan 2026said Hyundai Motor Groupdue 31 Dec 2028

    Atlas starts parts-sequencing work at Hyundai's Georgia Metaplant (HMGMA) in 2028 and moves to component assembly by 2030, backed by a 30,000-robot-a-year factory

    Open

    Atlas is training at the RMAC center on the HMGMA site as of September 2026. Production-line deployment is still planned for 2028. Source

  1. Samsung1 slipped · 1 broken
  2. 6 Jan 2025said Samsungdue 30 Jun 2025

    Ballie would hit the market in the first half of 2025

    Slipped

    On 2025-04-09 Samsung gave a new date: available to consumers in the US and Korea 'this Summer' (2025). That date was missed too; see the next entry. Source

  3. 9 Apr 2025said Samsungdue 22 Sep 2025

    Ballie, with Google Gemini, would be available to consumers in the US and Korea in summer 2025

    Broken

    No launch in 2025. In December 2025 Samsung said it was still refining the technology. At CES 2026 Ballie did not appear, and Samsung called it an 'active innovation platform' used internally, giving no release date. It has not been formally cancelled. Source

  1. Unitree1 kept · 1 open
  2. 17 Feb 2026said Wang Xingxingdue 31 Dec 2026

    Unitree would ship roughly 10,000 to 20,000 humanoid robots in 2026, up from about 5,500 in 2025

    Open

    Unitree listed on Shanghai's STAR Market in 2026. No full-year 2026 shipment count has been published yet. Source

  3. 9 Apr 2026said Unitreedue 17 Apr 2026

    The R1 humanoid would go on sale worldwide through AliExpress the following week, for North America, Europe, Japan and Singapore

    Kept

    By 2026-04-13 the R1 was listed on AliExpress through Unitree's Brand+ channel, from about $6,802 (EDU about $8,123). That is well above the roughly $4,370 domestic China price. Source

  1. Apptronik1 slipped
  2. 23 Aug 2023said Jeff Cardenasdue 31 Dec 2025

    Field pilots in 2024, with Apollo commercially available by the end of 2025

    Slipped

    In February 2026 Apollo was still in commercial pilots (Mercedes-Benz, GXO, Jabil), with no public sale. Cardenas described the company as entering its 'commercial viability stage,' and volume orders are now pointed at 2027. Source

  1. K-Scale Labs1 broken
  2. 18 Jul 2025said K-Scale Labsdue 31 Dec 2025

    K-Bot open-source humanoid at $8,999 for the first 100 units, with $100 preorders and deliveries starting in 2025 (first July, later 'late 2025')

    Broken

    The first Founder's Edition unit shipped in late September 2025. On 2025-11-04 founder Benjamin Bolte said the company had less than a month of runway, laid off most staff, cancelled the remaining preorders, refunded deposits and open-sourced its designs. Reports say about two units were delivered. Source

  1. Sanctuary AI1 open
  2. 11 Apr 2024said Sanctuary AI

    Sanctuary would deliver its Phoenix humanoid to a Magna manufacturing facility for a pilot, with Magna taking an equity stake

    Open

    No public results from a Phoenix pilot at Magna. On 2026-06-17, under a new CEO, Sanctuary said it would run its AI on existing industrial robots 'rather than waiting for humanoid hardware to reach mass commercialization.' Source

  1. XPeng1 open
  2. 5 Nov 2025said He Xiaopengdue 31 Dec 2026

    Large-scale mass production of the new IRON humanoid by the end of 2026, before a global rollout in 2027

    Open

    On 2026-09-07 XPeng said the first IRON walked off its new production line. It repeated the year-end mass-production target, with first deployments in its own stores and campuses and customer deliveries in 2027. Source

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